Grape

Resilience of South African winemakers

LIFE for South Africa’s 800 or so wine producers has not been easy for most of the past decade. Once the annualised percentage decline in the value of the rand fell below their input cost inflation, most suffered enormous margin erosion or real losses.

Despite this, there have been surprisingly few bankruptcies; lots of anxious bankers, many (relatively) impoverished shareholders, but only a countable number of failures.

It’s impossible not to admire the resilience of the group as a whole. Darwinian adapt-or-die strategies have played a role. Many have changed their focus, reducing their dependence on the wine business. Others have found cost savings that would have eluded professional business consultants.

Mostly, however, they’ve deferred essential investment in their vineyards and cellars, or they’ve carved up their farms.

Since the financial crisis of 2008, it hasn’t been all that easy to find buyers for real estate — at least not at better-than-fire-sale prices. Redevelopment (never an easy option, given zoning restrictions) has saved relatively few. Instead, to sell off vineyards they have been obliged to find the rarest of creatures, incurable optimists/fellow suckers/egotistical millionaires/lifestyle junkies, ready to take the plunge.

The increase in the number of new brands coming to market over this period (300-400 by my count, and still growing) tells you that there are more of those dream buyers out there than a credible writer of fiction would dare to suggest.

In this same decade whole new viticultural areas have been created and old ones transformed. Elgin, Elim, the west coast, Klein Karoo and the Garden Route have probably seen the most statistically significant change, though even the more traditional appellations such as Paarl, Stellenbosch, Tulbagh and Robertson reflect the extent of this investment.

Naspers ’s Koos Bekker has created a show property — now called Babylonstoren — on the slopes of the Simonsberg, next door to Backsberg. By the time a full range of wines is ready to come to market, the site (with its organic vegetable garden, restaurant, country house accommodation, new cellar and vineyards) will be something of a beacon on the Klapmuts-Simondium Road. First National Bank’s Michael Jordaan and his wife, Rose, approached the restoration of Bartinney, the Banhoek property on which Jordaan grew up (before it was sold to a largely absentee and neglectful foreign investor), in a low-profile and more domestic kind of way. They already have good chardonnay and cabernet in the market, a much-sought-after sauvignon blanc, and a value-for-money second label designed to empty the cellar between one vintage and the next.

The Elgin revolution has been completely different. Mostly it has been driven by the reinvention of deciduous fruit farms as grape (rather than wine) properties, though on the way several of the newcomers have achieved striking results. Almenkerk (sauvignon blanc), Highlands Road (pinot noir) and Shannon (merlot) have joined Oak Valley and Paul Cluver in raising the profile of an area which is increasingly regarded as one of three prime sources of cool-climate fruit in the Cape.

The Swartland has been stumbling towards anarchic coherence (or coherent anarchy). On the one hand, the lease arrangement entered into by Leeuwenkuil’s Willie Dreyer with the Swartland Co-op has brought some commercial savvy to the region’s biggest processing facility. On the other, the number of boutique operations has increased significantly over the period. In addition to the high-profile players such as Eben Sadie, Chris and Andrea Mullineux, Adi Badenhorst and Marc Kent who are invested in the region, there are now ever more rugged individualists such as Orangerie’s Pieter Euvrard and Lammershoek’s Craig Hawkins.

While the rest of the wine world has been contracting, or mired in caution, the South African lunatic fringe extends from Abingdon (near Howick in KwaZulu-Natal), via Bramon (Plettenberg Bay), Sjinn near Swellendam and way up the west coast to Fryer’s Cove and beyond.

The days when anything worth drinking came from within a 100km radius of Cape Town are distant history. South Africa’s adventure with wine is only just beginning.

First published in Business Day on 20th July 2012

Re: Resilience of South African winemakers

Optimists, suckers, millionaires or junkies – which of the above fits Franschhoek’s Holden Manz, ex Klein Genot? Good thing they have wonderful accommodation and restaurant, because the wines are absolutely appalling. (I appreciate these are Klein Genot’s dreadful old wines,  in new, heavy, expensive bottles, not theirs, but why they chose not to dump them...) I’m trawling the web to see who sings the praises (even remotely) of the Shiraz, Merlot and G (the least offensive, though don’t know how on God’s earth it got a Decanter Gold) and am crossing them off my short list of worthwhile wine critics.

Re: Resilience of South African winemakers

Michael - the reason so many people enter the wine business is due to lack of basic industry analysis. I can speak of first hand experience - making the decision based on passion for wine vs a solif investment analysis. The basic tool for industry analysis is considered to be Harvard Business School professor Michael E Porter's 5 Forces Analysis.

Lets take a brief look at the 5 forces and the Wine Industry:

1. Threat of new competition. New competitors from South Africa, Europe, South America, North America, Asia-Pacific are nearly boundless. New competition comes  from existing wineries extending ranges, new entrants, grape growers that are unhappy with grape prices and would rather 'add more value' and imports from heavily subsidized countries or due to strong Rand.

2. Threat of Substitution. Are there a shortage of substitutes ? Not only many different wine styles and wine regions, but beer, spirits, ready to drinks alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. All with far larger marketing budgets and reach.

3. Bargaining power of customers/buyers. Globally the super-markets are becoming the largest resellers of wine. Who has the power - you as small winery of the likes of PnP, Checkers or even worse - Sainsbury/Tesco/Aldi? At distribution level the same problem. You quote 800 wineries. How many good wine distributors are there in SA? How many brands can they handle? How many of them have their own products as focal brands?

4. Bargaining power of suppliers. A hugely fragmented market with 1 giant - Distell. 2 bottle suppliers, a few cardboard packagers etc. Who has the bargaining power, apart from Distell and some power in the very large producers hands ? No one else. Try set pricing and terms when you are a midget and your supplier a giant.

5. Intensity of competitive rivalry. How does a small can of Red Bull (carbonated water, sugar and some other chemical ingredients) sell for more than many 750ml bottles of wine in a super-market? Hugely intense rivalry where the giants use their muscle to keep prices down, competitors weak or even out of the market by 'buying' wine lists and retail space. 

Some would add - are there lots of stupid competitors? Stupid competitors drive prices and margins into the ground. Smart competitors move the battle elsewhere and preserve prices and margins - eg Coke & Pepsi. 

How many folks, bright or lucky enough to make the money required to buy a wine farm or set up a winery, did the analysis above and decided it looked like a really great industry to invest in?

Re: Resilience of South African winemakers

South African's resiliency is really admirable. Despite the crisis, they still know how to stand and regain whatever they have in their hands prior to the global crisis. This is something that wineries in the world should follow. A virtual employee will keep you updated of your companies status.

Re: Resilience of South African winemakers

Russell has long been making about possibilities) - but we are also fully entering the great pinot adventure and unleashing a whole multitude of vinous experience.

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The well known variations result from the very complex interactions between the biochemical development of the fruit, reactions involved in fermentation, and human intervention in the overall process. The final product may contain tens of thousands of chemical compounds in amounts varying from a few percent to a few parts per billion. Thanks.
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Typically enjoyed as a dessert wine, Moscato can also be served as an aperitif, afternoon thirst quencher or Sunday brunch accompaniment. As a frizzante, Moscato is not as bubbly as the related sparking wine Asti Spumante, but it is still popular for its sweet, fresh vibrancy and fruit forward flavors. When making Moscato, emulate some of the methods of the premier producers of Moscato. Thanks.

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